Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO042026 261101 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80     83.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     56.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  24.2  20.9  20.7  14.4  26.3  31.5  24.6  N  N  N  N  F  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  66.0  71.0  78.0  87.0  50.0  40.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    19.0  10.0  11.0  32.0  34.0  19.0  -9.0 -17.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  66.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  64.0  61.0  56.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.6%       22.8%       22.2%
 25kt / 24h       49.4%       67.0%       58.2%
 30kt / 24h       37.0%       60.4%       48.7%
 35kt / 24h       37.0%       60.4%       48.7%
 40kt / 24h       12.6%       57.4%       35.0%
 45kt / 36h       38.8%       72.7%       55.8%
 55kt / 36h       27.8%       59.1%       43.4%
 55kt / 48h       31.8%       44.3%       38.0%
 70kt / 48h       15.7%       32.6%       24.1%
 65kt / 72h        7.3%       27.0%       17.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.12

 IO042026 261101 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.80     83.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  24.2  20.9  20.7  14.4  26.3  31.5  24.6  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  66.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  64.0  61.0  56.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0   5.0   2.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%