Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO902026 261027 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00     86.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     74.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     58.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  16.2  13.9  15.1  29.0  47.3  59.1  76.1  F  F  F  F  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   72.0  72.0  71.0  72.0  52.0  32.0  32.0  32.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   147.0 165.0 176.0 174.0 139.0 118.0  83.0  58.0 VF VF VF VF VF  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  60.0  54.0  52.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   5.0  11.0  12.0  12.0  11.0   5.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.3%        4.7%        3.0%
 25kt / 24h       36.8%       62.6%       49.7%
 30kt / 24h       13.0%       41.2%       27.1%
 35kt / 24h        4.3%       41.2%       22.8%
 40kt / 24h        1.4%       37.4%       19.4%
 45kt / 36h       32.3%       70.6%       51.4%
 55kt / 36h       16.0%       48.8%       32.4%
 55kt / 48h       49.3%       40.1%       44.7%
 70kt / 48h       25.1%       29.4%       27.3%
 65kt / 72h       36.2%       13.8%       25.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.56

 IO902026 261027 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     13.00     86.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.5  16.2  13.9  15.1  29.0  47.3  59.1  76.1  U  U  U  U  N VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  70.0  67.0  60.0  54.0  52.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   5.0  11.0  12.0  12.0  11.0   5.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%