Rapid Intensification Guidance IO902026 261027 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 86.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 91.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 73.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 155.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.5 17.2 15.9 25.7 38.4 53.0 62.3 74.5 F F F N U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 72.0 71.0 72.0 52.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 165.0 175.0 174.0 146.0 144.0 102.0 77.0 45.0 VF VF VF VF VF F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 68.0 68.0 64.0 58.0 56.0 50.0 49.0 N N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 8.0 11.0 17.0 14.0 18.0 8.0 12.0 N U U U U VU U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.6% 6.2% 3.9% 25kt / 24h 36.8% 63.0% 49.9% 30kt / 24h 11.7% 43.2% 27.5% 35kt / 24h 4.9% 43.2% 24.1% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 36.6% 18.7% 45kt / 36h 20.0% 62.5% 41.3% 55kt / 36h 7.2% 37.9% 22.6% 55kt / 48h 36.8% 24.4% 30.6% 70kt / 48h 16.0% 15.3% 15.6% 65kt / 72h 22.4% 7.7% 15.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.54 IO902026 261027 18UTC Storm Located at : 14.50 86.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 155.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.5 17.2 15.9 25.7 38.4 53.0 62.3 74.5 U N U N F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 68.0 68.0 64.0 58.0 56.0 50.0 49.0 N N N N F F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 8.0 11.0 17.0 14.0 18.0 8.0 12.0 N F F F F VF F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%