Rapid Intensification Guidance IO902026 261028 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.70 85.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 87.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 61.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 172.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.9 33.0 42.5 50.2 72.9 93.2 100.3 99.1 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 51.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 N N N N N N N N Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 125.0 124.0 129.0 95.0 104.0 79.0 26.0 -1.0 F F F F F N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 66.0 64.0 66.0 65.0 63.0 52.0 44.0 N N N N N N U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 40.0 32.0 41.0 26.0 10.0 2.0 4.0 0.0 VU VU VU VU U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.3% 1.6% 1.0% 25kt / 24h 5.0% 14.6% 9.8% 30kt / 24h 0.6% 4.9% 2.8% 35kt / 24h 0.6% 4.7% 2.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 3.0% 1.5% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 5.7% 3.0% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.46 IO902026 261028 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.70 85.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 172.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.9 33.0 42.5 50.2 72.9 93.2 100.3 99.1 F F VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 66.0 64.0 66.0 65.0 63.0 52.0 44.0 N N N N N N F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 40.0 32.0 41.0 26.0 10.0 2.0 4.0 0.0 VF VF VF VF F N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.4% 0.1% 0.3%