Rapid Intensification Guidance IO902026 261028 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.50 85.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 89.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 46.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 160.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.2 52.4 66.7 73.5 91.8 104.4 111.5 105.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 178.0 169.0 138.0 114.0 105.0 68.0 57.0 21.0 VF VF VF F F N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 64.0 66.0 68.0 68.0 65.0 57.0 49.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 49.0 42.0 52.0 48.0 32.0 16.0 6.0 1.0 VU VU VU VU VU U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.5% 0.8% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 1.4% 3.8% 2.6% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.46 IO902026 261028 06UTC Storm Located at : 19.50 85.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 7.80 F TC SIZE [%] 160.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.2 52.4 66.7 73.5 91.8 104.4 111.5 105.1 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 64.0 66.0 68.0 68.0 65.0 57.0 49.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 49.0 42.0 52.0 48.0 32.0 16.0 6.0 1.0 VF VF VF VF VF F N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 36.8% 1.6% 19.2%