Rapid Intensification Guidance IO912026 260222 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.30 84.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 86.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.4 37.7 44.1 48.1 49.2 56.2 60.2 52.6 U U VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 48.0 46.0 40.0 36.0 32.0 33.0 27.0 22.0 N N N U U U U U Potential [kt] 127.4 123.5 119.8 116.2 116.2 114.4 104.6 98.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 73.0 42.0 8.0 0.0 5.0 -9.0 -29.0 -25.0 N N U U U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 55.0 56.0 55.0 53.0 50.0 48.0 41.0 N U U U U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 -2.0 -6.0 -8.0 -15.0 N N N F N F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.16 IO912026 260222 12UTC Storm Located at : 12.30 84.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15.