Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO912026 260223 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80     86.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.5  36.6  38.7  38.2  45.6  49.8  64.9  74.5  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  58.0  53.0  50.0  44.0  29.0  26.0  25.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        133.6 135.7 135.7 133.6 121.6 109.3 106.1  78.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0 -12.0 -20.0  -2.0  -1.0 -13.0 -16.0  -7.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  59.0  63.0  57.0  54.0  48.0  42.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -6.0 -10.0  -7.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.74

 IO912026 260223 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     11.80     86.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        37.5  36.6  38.7  38.2  45.6  49.8  64.9  74.5  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  54.0  59.0  63.0  57.0  54.0  48.0  42.0  F  F  F  N  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0  -6.0 -10.0  -7.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%