Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO912026 260223 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.70     85.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     27.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  32.3  30.4  30.3  45.3  56.1  68.1  83.2  U  U  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   67.0  68.0  64.0  56.0  43.0  25.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        142.3 144.6 140.1 135.7 119.8 103.0  97.2  59.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    16.0  17.0  24.0  17.0  -4.0 -28.0 -18.0 -23.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  62.0  61.0  56.0  53.0  52.0  46.0  36.0  U  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -6.0  -4.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.5%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        4.3%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.1%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 IO912026 260223 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.70     85.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     64.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.7  32.3  30.4  30.3  45.3  56.1  68.1  83.2  F  N  N  N VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  62.0  61.0  56.0  53.0  52.0  46.0  36.0  F  N  N  F  F  F VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -6.0  -4.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%