Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO912026 260223 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.20     87.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     67.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  32.8  31.4  30.8  32.1  36.9  28.1  24.1  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  67.0  59.0  58.0  53.0  50.0  44.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        144.6 140.1 140.1 135.7 131.5 133.6 121.6 119.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  18.0  24.0  17.0   3.0  -3.0  -5.0 -22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  52.0  44.0  44.0  38.0  36.0  31.0  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -4.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.3%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.6%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%       10.5%        5.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        3.3%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        6.3%        1.4%        3.9%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        2.0%        1.7%
 65kt / 72h        7.0%        6.8%        6.9%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.04

 IO912026 260223 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.20     87.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.8  32.8  31.4  30.8  32.1  36.9  28.1  24.1  F  F  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  58.0  52.0  44.0  44.0  38.0  36.0  31.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  -5.0  -4.0 -13.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%