Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO912026 261030 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.30     94.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  26.0  21.4  17.6  17.7  12.1  11.0  20.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   61.0  64.0  67.0  70.0  69.0  70.0  74.0  87.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  16.0  32.0  51.0   6.0   8.0  25.0  32.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       17.2%       10.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        6.6%        3.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        5.5%        2.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.5%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        4.6%       31.9%       18.3%
 55kt / 36h        2.9%       14.3%        8.6%
 55kt / 48h       29.2%       23.1%       26.1%
 70kt / 48h       14.4%       18.6%       16.5%
 65kt / 72h       50.3%       55.6%       53.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.96

 IO912026 261030 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.30     94.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     96.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.1  26.0  21.4  17.6  17.7  12.1  11.0  20.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  65.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%