Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO912026 261031 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90     91.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     80.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  19.1  15.6  14.3  14.2  17.6  22.3  25.7  N  N  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  76.0  74.0  70.0  64.0  63.0  78.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    69.0  60.0  57.0  10.0 -18.0 -11.0  11.0  10.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  67.0  71.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        4.0%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h       16.9%       46.4%       31.6%
 30kt / 24h        6.0%       28.4%       17.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.1%       27.6%       14.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       21.8%       11.4%
 45kt / 36h       15.3%       63.9%       39.6%
 55kt / 36h       10.0%       45.8%       27.9%
 55kt / 48h       39.3%       44.9%       42.1%
 70kt / 48h       22.1%       38.3%       30.2%
 65kt / 72h       37.1%       57.2%       47.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.18

 IO912026 261031 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90     91.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  19.1  15.6  14.3  14.2  17.6  22.3  25.7  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  67.0  71.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%