Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO912026 261031 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90     89.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     89.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     61.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  16.5  14.8  14.8  15.0  20.7  22.5  28.5  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  71.0  67.0  65.0  62.0  81.0  29.0  28.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    60.0  57.0  10.0   5.0  -6.0  16.0  16.0  10.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.8%        9.0%        5.9%
 25kt / 24h       28.8%       60.8%       44.8%
 30kt / 24h       13.1%       46.2%       29.7%
 35kt / 24h        8.3%       46.2%       27.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.7%       39.1%       20.4%
 45kt / 36h       21.3%       74.5%       47.9%
 55kt / 36h       15.6%       61.5%       38.6%
 55kt / 48h       40.3%       52.5%       46.4%
 70kt / 48h       22.9%       47.6%       35.2%
 65kt / 72h       27.0%       56.6%       41.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.16

 IO912026 261031 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      9.90     89.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  16.5  14.8  14.8  15.0  20.7  22.5  28.5  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  65.0  66.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  66.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%