Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO932026 260726 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60     88.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     55.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     42.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    148.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  23.3  30.6  29.9  44.6  44.1  44.1  47.2  N  N  U  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  10.0   9.0   7.0  68.0  60.0  23.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         67.7  65.7  65.7  64.7  60.9  56.6  54.2  50.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  30.0  60.0  64.0 -10.0  21.0   4.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  74.0  75.0  79.0  76.0  82.0  74.0  80.0  F  N  F  F  F  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.88

 IO932026 260726 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60     88.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.