Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO932026 260726 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90     88.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.0  26.9  24.8  31.3  25.5  28.1  24.4  31.4  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   0.0  65.0  54.0   8.0   8.0   8.0   8.0  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         63.7  61.8  60.0  58.3  55.8  58.3  55.8  55.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  27.0  23.0  24.0  -4.0  22.0   5.0  18.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   78.0  78.0  77.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  81.0  80.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -1.0   0.0  -4.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.42

 IO932026 260726 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90     88.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.