Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO942026 260916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40     68.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  18.0  17.0  19.7  23.6  19.5  21.7  16.1  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  45.0  43.0  43.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0   7.0  -2.0  -8.0  14.0 -17.0   2.0  -3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  53.0  49.0  45.0  42.0  37.0  32.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   5.0   4.0   6.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        9.6%        5.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        3.3%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        2.5%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%       14.4%        7.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        4.5%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h       13.5%        7.8%       10.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        4.0%        4.2%
 65kt / 72h       30.4%       17.7%       24.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.36

 IO942026 260916 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40     68.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     82.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  18.0  17.0  19.7  23.6  19.5  21.7  16.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  52.0  53.0  49.0  45.0  42.0  37.0  32.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   5.0   4.0   6.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%