Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO942026 260916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60     68.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  23.5  24.6  20.4  25.0  20.2  28.4  15.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  22.0  43.0  42.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  44.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0 -19.0 -18.0   0.0  -9.0  -1.0  -5.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  44.0  40.0  40.0  36.0  34.0  30.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   9.0  10.0  14.0  10.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        7.7%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.3%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.8%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%       11.6%        6.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.7%        3.4%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h       13.4%        5.8%        9.6%
 70kt / 48h        4.3%        3.2%        3.7%
 65kt / 72h       25.1%       12.1%       18.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 31.54

 IO942026 260916 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.60     68.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  23.5  24.6  20.4  25.0  20.2  28.4  15.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  47.0  44.0  40.0  40.0  36.0  34.0  30.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   9.0  10.0  14.0  10.0   3.0   1.0   0.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%