Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO942026 260917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50     69.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  20.4  12.0  14.4  22.3  22.9  23.7  28.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  51.0  26.0  26.0   9.0   8.0   7.0  25.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -7.0 -34.0 -36.0 -19.0 -36.0 -25.0 -26.0 -28.0  U VU VU  U VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  51.0  52.0  48.0  42.0  38.0  36.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   1.0   4.0   6.0   4.0   3.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%       10.0%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        3.2%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        2.6%        1.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.6%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       14.5%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        4.7%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        5.1%        5.8%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        3.3%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h        5.1%        8.5%        6.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.82

 IO942026 260917 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50     69.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     80.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.8  20.4  12.0  14.4  22.3  22.9  23.7  28.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  49.0  51.0  52.0  48.0  42.0  38.0  36.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   1.0   4.0   6.0   4.0   3.0  -5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%