Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO962026 261021 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.20     59.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     33.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  18.6  21.4  19.9  19.3  17.2  24.8  25.5  F  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   62.0  61.0  57.0  54.0  46.0  49.0  45.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0   0.0 -17.0 -17.0   6.0   1.0 -23.0 -65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  55.0  51.0  47.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%       11.4%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        3.5%        2.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        2.6%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        2.6%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%       22.7%       12.8%
 55kt / 36h        2.2%        8.3%        5.3%
 55kt / 48h       22.0%       12.2%       17.1%
 70kt / 48h        9.5%        9.4%        9.5%
 65kt / 72h       23.2%       23.9%       23.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.10

 IO962026 261021 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.20     59.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     33.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  18.6  21.4  19.9  19.3  17.2  24.8  25.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  64.0  64.0  55.0  51.0  47.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%