Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO962026 261021 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.30     57.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     33.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  21.4  19.5  18.3  19.7  22.7  20.7  30.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   57.0  56.0  54.0  52.0  46.0  50.0  32.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0 -17.0 -17.0  -5.0   7.0   0.0 -54.0 -67.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  61.0  61.0  65.0  N  U  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.3%       12.8%        7.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        4.2%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.6%        3.2%        1.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        3.0%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%       25.8%       14.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%       10.0%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h       17.3%       12.2%       14.8%
 70kt / 48h        6.7%        9.6%        8.2%
 65kt / 72h       12.6%       22.0%       17.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.08

 IO962026 261021 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.30     57.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     33.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  21.4  19.5  18.3  19.7  22.7  20.7  30.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  59.0  60.0  60.0  58.0  61.0  61.0  65.0  N  F  N  N  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%