Rapid Intensification Guidance

 IO962026 261021 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.50     56.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  15.9  16.2  13.8  12.7  15.9  21.6  20.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   53.0  50.0  47.0  47.0  50.0   0.0  14.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0 150.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    26.0  19.0  14.0   3.0   0.0  17.0   8.0  -7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  56.0  57.0  63.0  60.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.4%       21.4%       12.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.1%        8.6%        4.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        7.2%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.5%        6.6%        3.5%
 45kt / 36h        5.5%       43.9%       24.7%
 55kt / 36h        4.3%       24.4%       14.3%
 55kt / 48h       26.2%       25.2%       25.7%
 70kt / 48h       12.3%       22.3%       17.3%
 65kt / 72h       23.2%       40.0%       31.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.96

 IO962026 261021 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :      8.50     56.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    15.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    15.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.2  15.9  16.2  13.8  12.7  15.9  21.6  20.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  55.0  54.0  53.0  56.0  57.0  63.0  60.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%