Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012026 250716 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.80     89.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  35.1  32.5  28.2  19.3  27.1  31.2  37.9  U  U  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  17.0  15.0   8.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 111.5 109.4 109.4  96.2  87.7  83.0  78.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  17.0  20.0  24.0  37.0  66.0  50.0  21.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  71.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  74.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  -9.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.0%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        3.0%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.1%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 SH012026 250716 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -9.80     89.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.5  35.1  32.5  28.2  19.3  27.1  31.2  37.9  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  69.0  71.0  73.0  74.0  73.0  74.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0  -1.0  -3.0  -3.0  -9.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%