Rapid Intensification Guidance SH012026 250717 06UTC Storm Located at : -10.00 88.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 28.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 21.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 88.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.0 27.6 21.1 19.0 27.9 30.5 43.5 45.9 N N N N N N VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 9.0 4.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 99.8 98.0 98.0 96.2 86.1 81.5 73.0 67.9 N N N N N N U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 22.0 3.0 19.0 27.0 66.0 22.0 27.0 30.0 U U U U N U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 68.0 70.0 70.0 74.0 74.0 70.0 65.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 -0.0 -3.0 -3.0 -8.0 -7.0 -18.0 N N N N N F F VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 1.5% 0.8% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 1.9% 1.0% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.04 SH012026 250717 06UTC Storm Located at : -10.00 88.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.