Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH012026 250717 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.10     88.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     38.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        22.1  18.8  19.3  25.0  29.1  35.3  40.6  46.5  N  N  N  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         99.8  96.2  94.4  86.1  81.5  77.2  73.0  71.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  31.0  31.0  44.0   2.0 -17.0  17.0  43.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  65.0  66.0  70.0  71.0  65.0  60.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -5.0  -4.0  -7.0  -8.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.4%        2.0%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.5%        1.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.1%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.78

 SH012026 250717 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.10     88.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.