Rapid Intensification Guidance SH012026 250719 00UTC Storm Located at : -12.20 81.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.90 F TC SIZE [%] 49.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.6 35.7 41.2 37.7 40.3 37.8 52.1 59.7 N U VU U U U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 86.5 82.2 82.2 82.2 76.7 76.7 72.9 70.5 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -11.0 -24.0 -23.0 -9.0 -4.0 21.0 -26.0 65.0 U VU VU U U U VU N Humidity 700-500 hPa 56.0 53.0 49.0 46.0 41.0 43.0 34.0 32.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -9.0 -9.0 -7.0 -4.0 -4.0 3.0 -7.0 F F F F F F N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.72 SH012026 250719 00UTC Storm Located at : -12.20 81.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.