Rapid Intensification Guidance SH012026 250719 06UTC Storm Located at : -13.00 81.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.90 F TC SIZE [%] 57.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.8 42.4 42.6 43.0 38.0 40.8 38.8 39.5 U VU VU VU U VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 82.2 82.2 78.0 78.0 72.9 76.7 80.8 88.0 N N N N U U N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -24.0 -23.0 -8.0 -5.0 3.0 11.0 -11.0 29.0 VU VU U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 56.0 53.0 50.0 41.0 38.0 39.0 38.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -9.0 -11.0 -8.0 -9.0 -5.0 -2.0 -3.0 -7.0 F F F F F N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.54 SH012026 250719 06UTC Storm Located at : -13.00 81.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.