Rapid Intensification Guidance SH022026 250807 00UTC Storm Located at : -7.30 61.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 27.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.50 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.9 33.3 37.8 38.5 41.6 47.8 51.3 47.6 N U U U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 8.0 8.0 7.0 1.0 0.0 9.0 17.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 92.7 91.0 94.4 94.4 92.7 89.3 92.7 99.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -3.0 47.0 32.0 15.0 14.0 -20.0 -24.0 24.0 U N N U U VU VU U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 59.0 61.0 54.0 47.0 34.0 28.0 27.0 N U N U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -0.0 -0.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.8% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.62 SH022026 250807 00UTC Storm Located at : -7.30 61.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.