Rapid Intensification Guidance SH022026 250807 06UTC Storm Located at : -7.50 61.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 23.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 12.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.10 F TC SIZE [%] 81.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.7 36.9 39.2 40.8 51.1 54.7 52.0 50.2 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 5.0 4.0 4.0 7.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 8.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 92.7 91.0 89.3 89.3 87.7 84.6 86.1 91.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 31.0 26.0 7.0 21.0 16.0 -18.0 -4.0 9.0 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 59.0 58.0 51.0 40.0 36.0 27.0 22.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -0.0 2.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 -0.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.50 SH022026 250807 06UTC Storm Located at : -7.50 61.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.