Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH022026 250808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -6.30     59.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     60.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        41.0  39.5  42.5  45.3  47.6  46.4  46.5  52.9 VU  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0   9.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   5.0  11.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.4  96.2  92.7  87.7  89.3  92.7  94.4 101.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     9.0  19.0  15.0  32.0  -3.0  -2.0 -16.0  37.0  U  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  44.0  41.0  39.0  33.0  27.0  25.0  24.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.62

 SH022026 250808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -6.30     59.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.