Rapid Intensification Guidance SH022026 250808 12UTC Storm Located at : -5.60 59.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.60 F TC SIZE [%] 38.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.7 47.2 50.0 49.0 48.9 50.8 50.0 58.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 11.0 9.0 8.0 6.0 6.0 20.0 29.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 109.8 111.6 111.6 106.2 102.7 104.4 108.0 117.4 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 15.0 32.0 24.0 -3.0 -1.0 -16.0 37.0 -24.0 U N U U U U N VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 40.0 38.0 36.0 30.0 29.0 27.0 25.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.00 SH022026 250808 12UTC Storm Located at : -5.60 59.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.