Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032026 250909 06UTC Storm Located at : -9.10 69.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 18.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 12.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 35.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.1 38.2 39.8 39.4 48.0 44.9 45.4 38.6 U U U U VU VU VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 11.0 15.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 89.3 91.0 91.0 91.0 91.0 98.0 101.6 99.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 61.0 53.0 68.0 47.0 53.0 70.0 55.0 64.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 63.0 64.0 60.0 64.0 54.0 52.0 52.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 2.0 2.0 -0.0 -3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.46 SH032026 250909 06UTC Storm Located at : -9.10 69.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.