Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032026 250909 18UTC Storm Located at : -10.30 67.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 13.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 5.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.60 F TC SIZE [%] 55.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.2 31.6 35.8 37.1 36.8 30.2 21.7 22.0 U U U U U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 8.0 7.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 84.6 84.6 84.6 91.0 91.0 96.2 94.4 92.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 62.0 54.0 47.0 44.0 34.0 58.0 53.0 37.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 59.0 58.0 59.0 56.0 57.0 54.0 55.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -0.0 2.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.18 SH032026 250909 18UTC Storm Located at : -10.30 67.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.