Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH032026 250910 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.50     65.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     54.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.6  41.9  43.1  43.0  37.9  28.4  23.0  23.4  U VU VU VU  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   6.0   5.0   3.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.6  91.0  91.0  91.0  91.0  91.0  89.3  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    28.0  33.0  21.0  36.0  67.0  58.0  27.0   7.0  U  N  U  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   54.0  56.0  57.0  55.0  57.0  52.0  51.0  49.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   3.0   3.0   2.0   3.0   2.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.0%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.34

 SH032026 250910 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :    -10.50     65.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.