Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032026 250910 12UTC Storm Located at : -10.50 65.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 15.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 9.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 60.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.8 41.5 40.4 39.7 31.8 24.6 27.0 29.8 VU VU U U U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 2.0 6.0 9.0 7.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 84.6 91.0 91.0 89.3 94.4 94.4 92.7 98.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 33.0 21.0 37.0 61.0 59.0 9.0 36.0 45.0 N U N N N U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 57.0 54.0 55.0 55.0 48.0 52.0 50.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 2.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 -1.0 -1.0 -4.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.32 SH032026 250910 12UTC Storm Located at : -10.50 65.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.