Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032026 250910 18UTC Storm Located at : -10.20 64.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 27.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.30 F TC SIZE [%] 41.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 42.6 37.0 35.7 33.3 27.3 32.9 32.9 40.1 VU U U U N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 0.0 4.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 12.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 91.0 91.0 89.3 94.4 94.4 99.8 94.4 96.2 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 62.0 61.0 68.0 48.0 56.0 64.0 47.0 18.0 N N N N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 52.0 45.0 43.0 46.0 44.0 43.0 44.0 44.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 3.0 3.0 -1.0 -3.0 -3.0 -4.0 -3.0 N N N N N N F N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.5% 0.1% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.44 SH032026 250910 18UTC Storm Located at : -10.20 64.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.