Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032026 250911 00UTC Storm Located at : -10.10 64.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 22.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 12.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 52.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.5 37.6 34.2 32.3 28.4 32.4 28.8 35.6 VU U U U N U N U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 0.0 3.0 2.0 11.0 14.0 13.0 11.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 91.0 91.0 89.3 94.4 92.7 98.0 94.4 98.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 25.0 21.0 24.0 24.0 51.0 20.0 -1.0 -56.0 U U U U N U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 44.0 42.0 43.0 49.0 47.0 49.0 48.0 47.0 VU VU VU U VU U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 3.0 -0.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.44 SH032026 250911 00UTC Storm Located at : -10.10 64.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.