Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032026 250911 18UTC Storm Located at : -9.00 62.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 38.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 16.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.90 F TC SIZE [%] 51.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 37.3 35.5 35.9 37.1 35.9 37.7 33.7 35.1 U U U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 7.0 6.0 11.0 10.0 12.0 11.0 8.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 94.4 94.4 92.7 99.8 98.0 101.6 94.4 91.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -11.0 11.0 23.0 30.0 15.0 2.0 -75.0 -69.0 U U U N U U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 47.0 44.0 47.0 45.0 45.0 40.0 42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 1.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.74 SH032026 250911 18UTC Storm Located at : -9.00 62.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.