Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032026 250912 12UTC Storm Located at : -7.80 60.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 31.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 13.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.50 F TC SIZE [%] 37.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.7 33.6 32.4 31.1 33.9 31.9 36.8 34.1 U U U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 16.0 15.0 17.0 15.0 11.0 6.0 2.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 109.8 108.0 108.0 111.6 108.0 109.8 102.7 97.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -19.0 -13.0 -7.0 -29.0 -62.0 -11.0 -53.0 -33.0 U U U VU VU U VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 46.0 45.5 45.0 43.0 44.0 39.0 40.0 41.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 0.5 -0.0 1.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 8.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.98 SH032026 250912 12UTC Storm Located at : -7.80 60.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.