Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032026 250912 18UTC Storm Located at : -7.60 60.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.90 F TC SIZE [%] 33.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 33.9 30.8 30.1 29.0 24.5 28.1 19.6 22.6 U U N N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 15.0 17.0 15.0 15.0 10.0 6.0 1.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 108.0 115.5 111.6 111.6 108.0 106.2 101.0 96.1 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -19.0 -32.0 -36.0 -36.0 -29.0 -34.0 -25.0 -29.0 U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 44.0 41.0 42.0 40.0 43.0 38.0 37.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 1.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.08 SH032026 250912 18UTC Storm Located at : -7.60 60.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.