Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032026 250913 06UTC Storm Located at : -6.90 59.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.00 F TC SIZE [%] 32.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.2 29.1 27.0 23.9 20.2 17.3 19.0 18.1 N N N N N F N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 18.0 15.0 15.0 11.0 6.0 5.0 6.0 9.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 120.5 116.6 113.0 118.5 111.2 106.0 107.7 116.6 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -32.0 -53.0 -60.0 -41.0 -39.0 -25.0 -49.0 -42.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 41.0 42.0 39.0 40.0 38.0 37.0 34.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.16 SH032026 250913 06UTC Storm Located at : -6.90 59.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20.