Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032026 250913 12UTC Storm Located at : -6.50 59.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 10.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.30 F TC SIZE [%] 33.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 27.9 25.9 22.1 19.1 20.9 17.3 22.7 21.7 N N N N N F N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 18.0 15.0 13.0 13.0 4.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 121.6 121.6 123.5 123.5 112.7 109.3 106.1 103.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -36.0 -57.0 -55.0 -53.0 -19.0 -21.0 -26.0 -43.0 VU VU VU VU U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 39.0 41.0 39.0 38.0 36.0 34.0 31.0 32.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.8% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 2.4% 1.3% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 3.3% 0.9% 2.1% 70kt / 48h 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 65kt / 72h 0.6% 1.2% 0.9% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.18 SH032026 250913 12UTC Storm Located at : -6.50 59.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15.