Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032026 250913 18UTC Storm Located at : -6.30 59.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.80 F TC SIZE [%] 33.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.5 27.0 28.0 36.7 35.2 34.0 26.6 29.5 N N N U U U N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 22.0 22.0 23.0 19.0 9.0 2.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 125.5 125.5 127.4 127.4 119.8 114.4 106.1 103.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -68.0 -67.0 -64.0 -36.0 -6.0 -45.0 -30.0 -34.0 VU VU VU VU U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 41.0 43.0 45.0 41.0 40.0 34.0 31.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 2.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.2% 0.7% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.34 SH032026 250913 18UTC Storm Located at : -6.30 59.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15.