Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032026 250914 00UTC Storm Located at : -6.30 59.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.70 F TC SIZE [%] 33.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 28.7 31.2 34.8 36.2 33.6 32.0 31.0 39.8 N U U U U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 20.0 20.0 23.0 26.0 29.0 23.0 11.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 125.5 125.5 125.5 131.5 131.5 129.4 123.5 111.0 N N N F F F N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -81.0 -70.0 -51.0 -40.0 -19.0 -28.0 -46.0 -43.0 VU VU VU VU U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 40.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 39.0 40.0 34.0 30.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 -0.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.36 SH032026 250914 00UTC Storm Located at : -6.30 59.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15.