Rapid Intensification Guidance SH032026 250914 06UTC Storm Located at : -6.70 59.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 15.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.30 F TC SIZE [%] 33.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.8 31.7 35.0 34.7 34.1 29.4 30.6 32.6 N U U U U N U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 18.0 20.0 23.0 23.0 18.0 10.0 3.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 125.5 125.5 125.5 125.5 121.6 114.4 111.0 106.1 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -85.0 -57.0 -39.0 -8.0 -29.0 -25.0 -42.0 -40.0 VU VU VU U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 38.0 41.0 43.0 38.0 38.0 34.0 33.0 26.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 4.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 -2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.1% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.30 SH032026 250914 06UTC Storm Located at : -6.70 59.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 15.