Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042026 251018 00UTC Storm Located at : -7.70 74.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 82.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 70.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.3 19.3 18.8 23.1 36.1 36.4 33.2 28.1 N N N N U U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 33.0 27.0 23.0 20.0 17.0 16.0 16.0 10.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 113.6 111.5 101.6 101.6 99.8 99.8 99.8 92.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 187.0 141.0 99.0 86.0 78.0 78.0 104.0 79.0 VF VF F F N N F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 85.0 85.0 82.0 81.0 77.0 76.0 70.0 66.0 F F F F F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -3.0 -5.0 -4.0 -2.0 -0.0 -0.0 -1.0 N N F F N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.8% 2.7% 2.3% 25kt / 24h 10.8% 22.1% 16.4% 30kt / 24h 3.3% 10.4% 6.9% 35kt / 24h 1.2% 10.2% 5.7% 40kt / 24h 1.2% 7.3% 4.2% 45kt / 36h 3.1% 21.2% 12.1% 55kt / 36h 1.2% 8.1% 4.6% 55kt / 48h 6.2% 1.6% 3.9% 70kt / 48h 1.6% 3.4% 2.5% 65kt / 72h 1.1% 4.5% 2.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.52 SH042026 251018 00UTC Storm Located at : -7.70 74.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 107.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.3 19.3 18.8 23.1 36.1 36.4 33.2 28.1 N N N N F F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 85.0 85.0 82.0 81.0 77.0 76.0 70.0 66.0 U U U U U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -2.0 -3.0 -5.0 -4.0 -2.0 -0.0 -0.0 -1.0 N N U U N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%