Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042026 251018 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.90     74.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  26.2  29.2  37.7  49.1  43.0  38.0  25.9  N  N  N  U VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  29.0  24.0  23.0  24.0  21.0  21.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 111.5 109.4 109.4  99.8  99.8  99.8  99.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   141.0  98.0  86.0  61.0  95.0  87.0  99.0  63.0 VF  F  F  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  85.0  84.0  82.0  84.0  80.0  78.0  72.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   3.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        0.9%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.7%        5.4%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        1.5%        1.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        1.1%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.0%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.3%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.68

 SH042026 251018 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -7.90     74.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.6  26.2  29.2  37.7  49.1  43.0  38.0  25.9  N  N  N  F VF VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   84.0  85.0  84.0  82.0  84.0  80.0  78.0  72.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   3.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%