Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042026 251018 12UTC Storm Located at : -8.20 73.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 5.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 21.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 15.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.40 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 31.3 31.0 34.1 39.5 39.6 46.3 33.8 40.2 U U U U U VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 23.0 23.0 24.0 21.0 21.0 20.0 16.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 111.5 109.4 109.4 99.8 99.8 99.8 99.8 99.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 111.0 86.0 90.0 94.0 105.0 121.0 63.0 46.0 F F F F F F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 81.0 79.0 80.0 74.0 71.0 71.0 67.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -2.0 -2.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.3% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 1.7% 1.1% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.4% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.2% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 0.1% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.46 SH042026 251018 12UTC Storm Located at : -8.20 73.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.