Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042026 251019 00UTC Storm Located at : -8.40 69.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 64.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 55.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 93.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 30.2 32.2 34.0 34.3 45.3 39.1 43.3 39.6 N U U U VU U VU U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.0 24.0 24.0 22.0 22.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 107.4 107.4 107.4 107.4 107.4 107.4 107.4 99.8 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 102.0 128.0 133.0 102.0 101.0 41.0 1.0 -6.0 F F VF F F N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 80.0 76.0 75.0 74.0 67.0 68.0 67.0 71.0 F F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 -1.0 -1.0 -0.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.8% 3.9% 2.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 1.3% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 1.1% 0.5% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 3.1% 1.7% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.4% 0.5% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.4% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.40 SH042026 251019 00UTC Storm Located at : -8.40 69.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.