Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042026 251019 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -8.60     69.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.3  35.7  37.7  46.1  50.3  40.1  46.6  41.7  U  U  U VU VU  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  26.0  26.0  26.0  25.0  25.0  22.0  22.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.4 102.4 102.4 102.4 102.4 102.4 102.4 102.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   128.0 133.0 102.0 138.0  71.0  37.0  -7.0  39.0  F VF  F VF  N  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   83.0  78.0  75.0  71.0  67.0  66.0  61.0  53.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0   1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        2.4%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.5%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        0.4%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h       -0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.40

 SH042026 251019 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -8.60     69.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.