Rapid Intensification Guidance SH042026 251019 12UTC Storm Located at : -8.60 69.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 47.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 45.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 6.60 F TC SIZE [%] 76.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 34.2 28.4 32.0 35.1 30.3 33.8 32.1 37.7 U N U U N U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 26.0 24.0 23.0 22.0 19.0 15.0 13.0 6.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 102.4 102.4 102.4 94.8 94.8 94.8 87.7 86.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 113.0 102.0 77.0 101.0 25.0 25.0 47.0 44.0 F F N F U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 79.0 75.0 68.0 64.0 63.0 59.0 52.0 45.0 F F N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -0.0 -1.0 -0.0 -0.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.7% 0.6% 0.7% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 3.5% 2.2% 30kt / 24h 0.5% 1.1% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.5% 0.9% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 3.7% 2.0% 55kt / 36h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 1.0% 0.1% 0.6% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.32 SH042026 251019 12UTC Storm Located at : -8.60 69.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.