Rapid Intensification Guidance

 SH042026 251019 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -8.60     68.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     72.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     83.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.3  32.4  35.2  31.9  32.3  31.8  37.4  34.5  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  23.0  22.0  22.0  19.0  18.0  11.0   8.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        102.4 102.4 102.4  94.8  94.8  94.8  94.8  93.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   102.0  77.0 101.0  48.0  23.0  46.0  60.0  43.0  F  N  F  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  65.0  65.0  61.0  64.0  63.0  59.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -0.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  -1.0  -0.0  -0.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        3.5%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        3.4%        1.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 48h        0.6%        0.4%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.32

 SH042026 251019 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     -8.60     68.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.